Some Horror and a Bit of Political Analysis
Posted by Mike O on December 4, 2007
First, a horror show; a graphic warning for conservatives and other people of good taste goes with this link. The ‘lady’ is getting a bit rattled, I would expect.
I expect Hillary to be nominated, not that Obama won’t give her some ulcers (and bring out some of here inherent nastiness) in the process. The mechanics of the Democrat primary process, with its very ‘undemocratic’ 842 super delegates (40% of the total) pretty well assures Hillary’s victory. However, if Obama actually pulls substantial number of actually elected delegate, it all could be quite humiliating to her.
So the object for the GOP is simply to beat Hillary. She has sky-high negative which actually makes it possible. But there are two other components involved; determining the GOP candidates ‘attack points’ and differentiating on issues important to voter.
The attack points that a Hillary campaign will go after must be understood from the understanding of the duality of campaigns that will be very pronounced in Hillary’s case. The official campaign will be very professional, very manipulative of every situation (the recent hostage, and very machine-like. Pretty much a direct representation of Hillary’s public personality.
The shadow campaign will be as reflective of her private personality as seen by Secret Service agents in the past; with the deliberate viciousness of a back-alley knife fight. A combination of the redirected insanity of Bush Derangement Syndrome, desire for ‘Swiftboat Revenge’, and liberal feminist religious-like ‘it’s our time’ fervor. The shadow campaign is likely to be the nastiest of all time directed at a Republican, no matter who it is, and likely will be more a factor than the official one. Especially now that both the media and Dems will not want to talk about the progress in Iraq and their wrongheadedness in that direction (and Hillary’s support for the continuation, since that leaves the anti-war types sitting at home).
So what are the attack points and differentiation between Hillary and the various GOP candidates, both for the official and shadow campaigns?
Here, the official campaign will have Hillary pushing her health care and ‘caring’, with Rudy talking about security. Immigration will be de-emphasized by both agree and have unpopular positions on it. Unless there is a serious security issue currently ongoing, Rudy loses here.
The shadow campaign will come down to an Oprah-level debate: ‘wronged woman running against cheating man’ for Hillary’s slime mechants, with Rudy’s commandos left with the ‘manipulative, power-hungering shrew’ argument. The fact that Bill apparently has continued to play the field will also come up, strengthening the ‘power-hungry component, since most women would have left old Bill long ago. Overall, though, this one is probably also a win for Hillary; Rudy apparently has done more things himself legitimately discussable, though one can never underestimate the silent resentment of the male population for women like Hillary (and more men vote then women).
Bottom line is that I think it will be very difficult for Rudy to survive Hillary’s knife-fighters while breaking even on the official stuff.
The official campaign for Hillary will be the same as for Rudy; health care and ‘caring’. Mitt will want to talk about executive management and economy, with a touch of security (not his strong suit). He might try to throw her legislative ineffectiveness at her.
The shadow campaign here will be all about Mormonism; implying cult-like aspects and the oddities of its history (my own Mormon roots include great-grandmother Ellis Shipp, a minor historical figure who was one of four wives). Mitt’s goon squad would use the same ‘shrew’ arguments, mainly from the impact of a management standpoint, as opposed to an ‘anti-man’ perspective. Again, very difficult for Mitt to win this one because it cannot be fought in the open. The official campaign would be a draw.
McCain’s whole approach will be national security; he’s untouchable in that area. Hillary will essentially be left with ‘me, too’ and it could be done better. She and the MSM will push domestic issues and the general ‘meanness’ of the GOP. If security issues don’t gain prominence, then they might be successful.
Hillary’s shadow campaign will be age and doing everything they can to remind the GOP base on McCain’s immigration positions (by helping border security forces find voice to get them to stay home). Also, the high-dollar people will be reminded of his election reform efforts; Hillary will pile up the money against McCain in retribution. Frankly, McCain’s basic niceness will likely fail him, he’ll respond angrily to something, and the ‘shrew’ aspects of Hillary will be nullified, with the help of the MSM. Another tough one to win. McCain would beat her in the official campaign, except that her extra money will cancel that win.
Hillary’s official campaign will pick Huckabee’s governship apart, looking for the wart (there are several, including tuition favoritism for illegals). Huckabee will need to talk about her lack of accomplishment as a senator.
Hillary’s shadow campaign will be envangelicals and will be very powerful; the liberals have been looking for a one-on-one cage match with evangelicals since the Moral Majority days. The official campaign will add fuel to the fire by getting abortion back in the mix (Supreme Court appointees). Since the vast majority of this country does not want an all-out ban on abortion, and evangelicals will accept nothing less, Huckabee loses to protect the convenience of this elective medical procedure (the only one a ‘protected right’). Huckabee would out-debate her with his superior style, but the MSM would keep him talking about religion to offset that..
The official campaign here from Thompsons’ side will be one of clear differentiation, especially damaging to Hillary on illegal aliens (important that the conversation is not about ‘immigration’, but ‘illegal aliens’). The press will go nuts defending her ‘immigration’ views, but it’s a losing proposition. The Dems official campaign will talk about ‘energy and drive’ in direct support of the shadow campaign.
The Hillary goons will go after age, ‘laziness’ and try to build up a ‘dirty old man’ image. It will be heavily based on unsubstantiated and unverifiable rumors, since Fred’s ex-wife and ex-girlfriends all support him. Implication of infidelity during his previous marriage will be implied; every ‘hello’ to a young woman who isn’t in his camp will be blown up to be a come-on. It will be nasty. But Hillary won’t be able to get under Fred’s skin and her cold-natured shrewness will become more obvious. She’ll out-debate him, but he’d ‘out-folksey’ her. Look for the MSM talking to Fred’s wife more than Fred (and Bill will disappear off the TV screen) to keep the ‘dirty old man’ thing going. But that all can be countered.
Bottom line; the shadow campaigns will be least effective against McCain and Thompson, while the differentiator factor goes to Thompson. Now if Fred will start showing a little liveliness in campaigning, even if it’s in an unconvential manner, it would be a big help.