Political Wonk, Charity Ronin & Oracle Hack

With all of the Buffoonery He allows, God must have a great sense of humor.

And What if Obama stops Queen Hillary’s Coronation?

Posted by Mike O on December 15, 2007

I can’t help but laugh as we watch Hillary’s campaign implode at a Howard Dean-like rate.  At least her blood-curdling screams of insanity have not been made public yet.  However, I can imagine what the back rooms are like now that Ms. Inevitable’s clock seems to be striking midnight and her coach for the coronation is turning into a pumpkin.  She still has time to turn it around and salvage things; as long as she doesn’t slide further, she can still bludgeon the 843 ‘super delegates’ into handing her a solid victory.  But, if she loses badly in the first few primaries, their fear of her will be overcome by her dislike for her and even they will begin to bolt.  It could get very satisfyingly ugly. 

However, the big question then remains: how do the various GOP contenders match up Oprah’s Messiah? (BTW: it looks like audience blowback might get the Queen of Daytime off the campaign trail.)   What kind of shadow campaigns can we expect? 

The overriding component for the Obama shadow campaign will naturally be race.  ‘How can you vote for another white Republican? Are you a racist?’ “It’s time we show we’re past our discrimination someone of color.”  The intensity of this shadow campaign will vary, dependent on his opponents (Michael Steele or Kay Hutchinson as a VP pick for the GOP nominee would help).  This shadow effort would reach the maximum peak with any combination of Fred and/or Mitt on the ticket;  after all, all white Southerners are racists, don’t you know, and every knows what those Mormons are like. (Amazingly, people who say things like this don’t see an ounce of bigotry in their own statements.)   This could get pretty nasty, but the deadliest of the knife fighters would have left the field; they all work for Hillary and most wouldn’t be caught dead working for Obama.  But expect Jess Jackson and Al Sharpton to try to stir things up.  I really wish Michael Steele would have run this time around, though he’s a bit young yet. 

The current candidates who would stand up best to this shadow campaign would be Rudy and John McCain.  The problem for both would be the official campaign, as they are both liberal enough on domestic issues not to have great enough differentiation.  Both could present themselves as ‘outsiders’ (as incorrect as that is for McCain) and McCain especially could hammer on experience.  The main difference would be on foreign policy and, with the global war on terror doing well and the MSM doing their darndest to keep that fact out of the public consciousness, that will not be enough to win, given the gentler, but adequately effective component likely could defeat either man short of major gaffes or revelations from Obama.  It would be Obama’s to lose, though it’s very possible he could do that with his clouded history and/or political naivety.

I won’t address a Huckabee campaign result, other than to say Custer stood a better chance of winning at Little Big Horn and the results would set new records of one-sidedness.  And I sure and heck ain’t going to be lying in the dust with arrows in my back; I’ll have ridden over the horizon long before.

Mitt and Fred would do better on the differentiation front on both spending and the big winning issue for the GOP; illegal immigration.  Mitt would be dinged on consistency, especially on immigration; but his polish would be hard for Obama to match.  Fred would get dinged on energy (the fun would be for Jeri to address this, assuring everyone Fred has plenty of energy with a wink while holding her two young kids.  That would end that, at least in the official campaign.)  Fred’s consistency and style would make this a winner for him.

So Mitt and Fred do better in the official campaign; Rudy and John would handle the shadow campaigns better.  The one factor they would have in common is that the MSM- having been all geared up for pushing their candidate Hillary into the White House would not be quite as organized to back Obama in all their subtle ways.  But trust me, they will. 

Bluntly, I think the unknowns would be the final key here.  Obama has not gone through all the scrutiny he would as the nominee and everyone knows the Hillary camp has dug deep.  With the mood toward her campaign right now, it would be counter-productive to release what they have found.  However, I would not put it past her to leak it if she loses, so she can have another go in 4 years, rather than 8.  She loses this one, though, she is done forever; he image as a schemer will never go away. 

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4 Responses to “And What if Obama stops Queen Hillary’s Coronation?”

  1. jayne said

    Could McCain have Lieberman as a VP, or would that just be too weird? Although I support Fred, and would wish for a Thompson/Hunter ticket, it seems that a McCain/Lieberman ticket would draw voters from both sides.

  2. Mike O said

    Jayne, it definitely would; it would probably be a winning ticket in the General election. Problem is, McCain won’t survive the GOP primary; the 800 pound gorilla the establishment is desperately trying to ignore- illegal immigration/border security- will insure that.

    McCain/Lieberman would be a Unity ticket of two men of very high regard; I tremendously respect both of them as being completely honest up front with their views. I just disagree with their domestic side, which I will admit is not nearly as important as my agreement with them on the global side. I’d certainly support them over anything on the Dem side (and certainly over Huckabee or Guiliani).

    Sadly, the liberals want blood this year; read any comment section discussing Lieberman’s endorsemant and that much is obvious.

    I’m sticking with Fred, naturally. Heck, I was a Goldwater backer; I don’t give up easily. And, with King’s endorsement today, Fred’s chances just improved substantially

  3. JLG said

    Mike, I think it’s very likely. Obama will probably win Iowa big time. He already has a pretty good lead here and remember that 2nd choices matter in the caucuses. If small candidates such as Kucinich, Dodd, Biden, etc. don’t get enough votes at each site to be viable, then their supporters can either remain undecided or choose a second choice (Kerry benefitted greatly from these votes in ’04). It is my hypothesis that most of those small candidate supporters are anti-Hillary votes, and they will flock to Obama (and to Edwards to a certain extent) as a second choice. Once she loses Iowa, her “inevitability” is gone. People who were voting for her for that reason (think she was inevitable) will jump ship, realizing that she’s a flawed candidate who 40% of Americans say they would never vote for in a general election and Obama will have the momentum going into NH. With all primaries front loaded to the end of January and beginning of February, Hillary will not have the time to recover and Obama will have all the money he needs to keep her from trying… and he will role to the nomination.

  4. […] JLG Mike O., a.k.a. “Data Troll” had an interesting post Dec. 15 entitled “And What If Obama Stops Queen Hillary’s Coronation?“  Well Mike, I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen and here’s […]

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