The Developing Nightmare of the Democratic Primary
Posted by Mike O on February 10, 2008
Last night, Barak Obama swept all Democrat contests and the Democrat’s biggest nightmare is developing in the breakdown of the delegate counts. As of this moment, Barack leads Hillary 908 to 877 in the ‘pledged’ delegates, but is behind overall in the delegate count 1039 to 1100, all based on the unelected super-delegates.
Add to this the additional nightmare that, if Barack pulls ahead despite the margin given Hillary by the Democrat ‘machine’ politicians (as opposed to voter and caucus-goers), Hillary’s gang could (and will) advocate the seating of delegates from Michigan and Florida. After all, they’ve been ‘disenfranchised’ (by agreement of all candidates and the Democrat party machinery, to put an end of the chaotic primary leapfrogging). Even seating half would have a profound impact, especially since Hillary was essentially the only one who ‘neglected’ to have her name pulled from the ballot in Michigan and violated the ‘no-campaign’ pledge in Florida.
Now mix in the race vs. gender schism the Clintons have deliberately aggravated and the recent history of the Democrats continually decrying ‘stolen elections’ (even though almost all people actually convicted of election fraud over the last decade are Democrats) and ‘minority disenfranchisement’. Throw into that Howard Dean’s statements about the Democrat Party ‘intervening’, setting down with the candidates and ‘making an arrangement’ (which sounds awfully ‘undemocratic’).
It really comes down to this; if Obama ends up winning the primary and caucus delegate totals and it looks like the super-delegates are going to overturn that, the Democrats can expect major demonstrations in Denver. Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton and every other race-baiter would be in full voice and the very real danger of ugliness that could suprass the 1968 fiasco. If ‘an arrangement’ is made to have enough super-delegates switch away from Hillary to ‘honor the vote’, expect a fair amount of noise from feminists (encouraged privately by Hillary and her machine).
Naturally, the solution to this would be a combined ticket, the ‘arrangement’ the Party wonks surely would seek. But that is going to be very difficult to pull off, both for political and personality reasons; Bill Clinton being a big part of the problem. A Barack/Hillary ticket would require Hillary to swallow a nearly unswallowable ego and Barack knows he would be hard pressed to deal with both her and Bill. It would involve Hillary making personal sacrifice for the sake of Party unity, something the Clintons have never done.
A Hillary/Barack ticket is not overly digestible either: Hillary is already having problems dealing with Bill and a ‘rock-star’ VP partner would make her look even weaker. And Barak knows he would be a seriously weakened VP, with Bill Clinton hanging around. He would be essentially giving up becoming President, possibly forever; he would be tied to another ‘Clinton legacy’ the next time the ‘change’ mantra comes around. Passing on the VP slot gives him a real shot of the independence he needs either 4 or 8 years from now, while adding to his currently limited experience at the national level. Idealistic he may be, but not so much not to realize such a slot would severely limit his future. I frankly don’t think he can give that up- and his idealistically liberal principles- for the ‘sake of the Party’.
Of course, one has to add into the consideration that Barak and Hillary don’t like each other at this point. One really needs to comfortable with their running mate and neither would be.
So, if the popular vote ends up being overturned and the Party top dogs can’t broker a combined ticket, there is really nastiness ahead at the convention in Denver. Something that could be reflected in November; the election that has been handed on a silver platter to them could be lost.
And I’ll laugh my ass off if that happens. 🙂